How long is the “long run” in roulette?

“The long run is far from 10 millions spins. For the even chances its as little as 50.000 spins (placed bets). Why ?

Because: After 50.000 placed bets you will have encountered 1351 zeros which would have cost you 675 units. Now if you have managed to have 675 more hits than what is expected for an even chance game (you would be at +675 if you don`t count the zeros) you would have had a hit rate that resembles a standard deviation of 3 over 50.000 placed bets. Now the zeros remove effectively the +675 units. 3 SD covers 99.77% of all possible outcomes of the 50.000 spins, so yes, there is a small chance for you to still be in profit after 50.000 placed bets, but in reality 50.000 placed bets on a even chance game played with flat bets is the milestone to beat. Just one condition: Those 50.000 spins must NOT be backwards engineered and its without progression. If you use a progression the calculation looks different and its beyond my capability to calculate it, in fact the only one i have seen doing it was Laurance. The benchmarks looks like this:

1 single number: 100.000 spins
Split bet: 200.000 spins
3 numbers: 130.000 spins
4 numbers 100.000 spins
6 numbers 60.000 spins
12 numbers 25.000 spins
18 numbers 50.000 spins

A food for thought is that you actually have a far better chance of staying a live playing a split bet rather than the dozens.

Mind you, the majority of strategys on the EC`s will tank already between 15 – 30.000 spins, at 1 – 2 SD, its only that little fraction that happens to take it to the 3 SD where the 50K applies.”

author: Kelly